26 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Saratoga Selections (2024)

Another big day for us here yesterday, with a profitable grand slam, two Ice Cold Doubles of $13 & $10, a $97 Rolling Double, a $34 Cold Exacta, a $17 Cold Quinella, a $29 Pick Three, a $132 Triple Box, and a successful Beatable Favorite.

We have now shown a flat bet profit in 8 of the 11 days thus far.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

We are not really feeling the heat from this heat, but nonetheless, we'll side with the #3 AFTERNOON HEAT. Eight year old enters today off a solid troika of races, as he was decently spotted down in the Mid Atlantic circuit. Blinkers are now added for the first time in his 44 Race career, and we like the 3 lb reduction in weight, as well as the three post position improvement. #6 VALENZAN DAY shoots for the hat trick today, and given the visually impressive manner in which he won his last pair, we'd say it's most definitely well within reach for this win machine, who owns the sort of declining record we like to see ( 17:7-3-1 ). Race clearly goes through him. #8 BOURBON CALLING drops for the second straight time this afternoon, and after the voided claim last out, it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups. Caveat emptor.

#1 GENEROUS LUVA played the fade in a similar spot down in Queens two months ago, but gets an around the world treatment for today's return, as she has blinkers and the wonder drug administered for the first time, while also taking the biggest drop in the game. Irad sees fit to take the call once again, and that's reason enough to give this one a tepid nod. #7 INFLAMMABELLE has some nice early zip, and although she's not as well bred for the green as the brown, perhaps the speed can carry her through. #9 SUPERSTARSUSAN cuts back for today's third off the shelf engagement, and can land a share. OFF TURF: 4-14(MTO)-2-12(AE)-7

Abbreviated, but highly competitive rendition of the Amsterdam this year, and we will put the #4 JEFFERSON STREET on top. Colt has yet to miss the money in his five race career, and that includes a going away win over this oval during Belmont week. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Mott is a saucy four for seven with dirt dashes not getting the miracle drug off sabbaticals of 48 to 50 days. The payouts for that study, with $22, $3, $4, and $9. We like this one's versatility and being able to come from off the pace, or rate just off a leader. #5 VALENTINE CANDY has a nice amount of back class, owns an all important win over the track, and was photogenic the only time when last to load. Oh yeah, toss in a win with his lone pairing beneath Joel as well. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the speed figures of #1 WORLD RECORD, as this fella has done nothing but improve with each passing start, but despite that, he has blinks added for the first time today, and we like when a trainer is confident enough to make a move like that off a decent performance.

#7 CHI TOWN LADY has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but got the job done and her only start in the zip code, and owns a win and a game showing in her lone pair of outings when last to load. From a trainer stat point of view, Ward is 9:7-1-1 with his first time routers on the dirt off absences of 20 to 50 days. The return on investment for that study is $5.75+, and there's a subcategory of three for three right here. #6 TOUGH STREET has hit the board in her last quartet, and has also been a part of the triple in all 10 starts at today's distance of ground. Logical unders candidate. #1 OCCULT is a classy sort, who closed out the tri in her only third off the layoff jammie.

#10 OUTTAWATERBURY hasn't done much to get the heart thumping in his last quartet, but gelding plunges today, and being this is just his second try in going to turns, we are willing to give him one more chance to get things going. At least it's good to see Johnny stick around, no? Slimmest of edges. #2 DYNA POINT showed precipitous improvement from his first turf engagement to the followup down in Maryland, and given the decent enough pedigree, we wouldn't be shocked to see another move forward today. #6 TONY O has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but has a decent collection of speed figures, and is as good as any for the show bread. OFF TURF: 1-2-8-9-10

#9 MISS WELCH gets her working papers this afternoon, and this gray gal tipped her hand a little bit with a nice gate move last week. $40,000 bred animal went for nearly five times that much at auction back in May, and aside from the fat Tomlinson of 429, we're digging the outside draw as well. From a trainer stat point of view, 'Miah is five of seven with those fitting all of this exact criteria at 18 to 1 or less, and there is a subcat of one for one with today's helmsman. The winners returned $15, $10, $3, $4 x 2, and given the hot start this Barn has had this far, we can do a lot worse. #5 HORSEPLAY showed diddly poo on the blades at first asking, and is now switched over to what we feel will be her best surface down the road. Chance to perk up at double digit odds, especially as Hills is two of three with second time starters making this surface transition at 67 to 1 or under. #6 OFF SCRIPT has a best of 147 gate breeze on display for today's lid lifter, and that's something that always merits inclusion for us.

#3 HARRY HOOD has been up to track in his last pair, but we like to go three races back to find something positive, and this boy lost by just a schnoz at 15 to 1 in the Grade 2 event down in Hallandale Beach back on 8th of March. Chance if able to get back to that performance, but you better demand all of the 6-1 morning line offering, if not a bit more. #5 BETTER BET had a forgettable performance last time out, but clipped heels that day, and if you're willing to forgive and forget, then what you have is a triad of solid starts just prior to that. Must include. #6 BE LIKE CLINT has completed the triple in his last three outings, and who are we to rock that boat ? OFF TURF: 1-11(AE)-5-7-8

#2 RUN CURTIS RUN has been camera shy for nearly two years now, but has done okay on the Mellon, and happens to be backed by a solid trainer statistic. Over the last 60 months, barn is on a six for eight run with optional turf dashes right here, off sabbaticals of less than 40 days. The victors came back a healthy $30, $13, $8, $7 X2, and $4. Once again, we'd like to see better than 7-2, especially with the frigid start that Saez has had. #5 SILARDI was a dead game winner when facing slightly softer in New Jersey and the 19:7-3-4 mark at today's distance positively stands out against the 11:0-0-1 record otherwise. Watch out, #6 SURVEILLANCE is a check earning fool who is entered for 20% less than the price claimed two back, so you have to assume all systems will be go for this uncoupled barnmate with our top selection. OFF TURF: 10-7-3-1-2

#7 CASTLE CHAOS by no means disgraced himself when finishing 4th at 29-1 in the Met Mile, and seems decently spotted for today's second off the shelf deal. Gelding has done okay at today's dist., and shedrow has scored with all five of the optional sand sprinters off L/O's of 46-51 days, with the winners paying a robust $48, $23, $7, $4, and $5 x 2. Will likely be over bet a bit, but deserves your respect nonetheless. #3 RUNNINDONOfa*gUN has done okay at today's trip, and is eligible to do better than the last in today's third off the layoff deal. #4 FACTUALLY CORRECT has been alternating losses and wins for his last nine starts, so today should be a win right? If only the game was that simple. That said, we dig the mark this one has when going seven panels, and recognize that Flavor Flav got the job done in their lone pairing.

#5 MISSION HILL has done quite well since returning off a long sabbatical, and while a sensible on top choice, is by no means a cinch, especially with his money burning ways. Meekest of selections in today's finale. #6 WIND DANCER has blinkers added after an even effort last time out, and could show a tad of improvement. #4 FILM ACADEMY posted a lifetime best figure the only time he was in the second off the bench spot, and should be in the thick of things. OFF TURF: 5-3-4-7-2 NOTE: AS OF 10:34, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-11-6.

Saratoga Summer ( Current ): 24-113 ( $368.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-9 ( 22.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 34-113 ( 30% )( As of Friday morning )

Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout